Stanza 5. When the Moon occupies watery vargas and Mars and Saturn are in earthy vargas and a rainbow is observed in the east, there will be heavy rainfall

Stanza 6. In the rainy season the rainbow appearing in the east does not give rain. In the other seasons, a rainbow in the east will bring in rains. A rainbow in the west during the rainy season brings in a downpour.

Stanza 7. When the Sun is fully covered by clouds, a radiance caused by the combinations of the Sun's rays is visible and this can be perceived through the clouds just resembling the Sun himself. This is known as prathi surya or mock-sun.

Stanza 8. When the mock-sun appears towards the north of the Sun's disc, there will be rain; towards the south, a tempest; and on both sides, a flood will come in. If it appears towards the top of the Sun's disc, some danger to the king is seen; and below the disc means some calamities to the people.

Stanzas 9, 10 and 11. When it rains on a new Moon day and the pratipada day, there will be no rains in the dark half. In both pakshas when it rains during the first 15 ghatikas on Dwiteeya and the last 15 ghatikas on Pratipada, there will be copious rains during those pakshas. When it rains only a little on those days, rains also will be scarce during those pakshas. If it does not rain then, there will be no rain during that paksha.

NOTES

The science of weather-forecasting had been systematically studied by our ancient astronomers and astrologers, though western scientists may say that meteorology is a new science. A systematic study of the science was made by our ancient astronomers and astrologers.

Even today it is a matter of common occurrence that village astrologers are right in a surprisingly high percentage of their weather predictions. Their rules are simple and dispense away with costly apparatus. Observation coupled with experience enabled the great sages of India to dive deep into the subject of meteorology and discover the laws governing weather, rainfall, storms, etc., which are of utmost importance to mankind.

Meteorolegy was taken by the Hindus as a branch of astrology because the heavenly bodies, the aspects, conjunctions, etc., are all common to both.

Every member of the solar system which, of course, includes the earth, can exert an important influence by gravitation upon every other. This leads to the proposition that planetary effects could possibly be produced upon the very mobile atmosphere of the earth. The ancient theory that the Moon exercises regulatory control over weather variations has now become an accepted fact of western science, thanks, to the researches of some Australian scientists. While the Moon's varying distance from the Sun, i.e., lunur day or tithi is a potent factor in weather changes, there is overwhelming evidence that the major planets have a powerful influence over atmospheric eventualities.

Research has revealed that about twice as many tropical storms have whirled to hurricane intensity on the three days centered at new Moon and full Moon. The rank and file of "scientists" ignore such scientific astrological facts because "known laws of science" cannot explain the theory of the astrological facts. Because the "known laws of scince" are sacrosanct to the "men of science", they play down the whole question even though it may mean ignoring facts. It is said that some meteorologists in U.S.A. have found what they call an incidence of correlation between years rich in rainfall and Jupiter's movements. At least the West is leading the way in this matter.

The present-day meteorologists in India have not come forward to test the methods recorded in ancient works on astro-meteorology because of the strange and peculiar attitudes developed in their thinking by nurturing an inferiority complex following years of foreign rule.

Life in large parts of the coastal Andhra Pradesh came to a standstill on the evening of November 19, 1977. A cyclone of tremendous intensity had hit the coast killing over 20,000 people and destroying property, crops, livestock worth an estimated three billion rupees. It was not, however, totally unexpected. Two days earlier a severe cyclone had hit the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu and most knew that the storm was heading towards them. But two days was not just enough time to prepare to receive the impact of the century's most devastating cyclone. The Meteorological Department had failed again and in spite of the statement of the Government of Andhra Pradesh that "... the meteorological department had given storm warnings and precautions had been taken" the people knew who were to be blamed. The statement was a cruel joke and an insult to the suffering people of the State.

Very few newspapers had the courage to point out the inadequacies and unscientific attitudes of the Meteorological Department of India. Some hoped that with the completion of project Monex and the installation of some more scanners, all at the expense of the suffering public, we should have been able to study weather patterns better. It is indeed a sad commentary on the apathy of the general public that crores of rupees have been frittered away by the Meteorological Department with no questions asked and no doubts raised. An example in point is the almost blind installation of scanners on the Andhra Pradesh Coast. The department prides itself on the fact that scanners can follow a cyclonic path upto 400 km. But with cyclonic speeds being in excess of 100 km per hour this would give a four-hour warning — hardly enough time to prepare to face a cyclone.

It seems that the failure of meteorologists is mainly due to a lack of sufficient 'scientific open-mindedness' which prevents them from considering extra-terrestrial happenings as being significant in the weather forecasting process. Temperature, pressure and rainfall are all important meteorological factors. To understand the weather phenomenon fully it is necessary to build up a comprehensive picture of the average climatic conditions over the earth as a whole and study those factors and their primary causants. In the West some researchers are increasingly inclined to view these primary causants as extra-terrestrial something that the sages of India had propounded thousands of years ago in their astrological works. But unfortunately astrology is taboo to our 'scientific minded' meteorologists.

Research conducted in the West shows that the average level of great lakes like Nyasa, Victoria and Albert as well as the Caspian Sea and other large basins of water is much higher at points of maximum solar activity than near minimum, Other studies indicate that periods of very heavy rainfall coincide with sunspot maxima. Flooding of the Nile also follows the solar cycle, being greatest at sunspot maxima. All considered it is reasonable to conclude that at such times (viz., sunspot maxima) there is higher rainfall over the earth and there are greater number of storms in the tropical regions. Moreover the general circulation of the atmosphere is more violent so that the temperature over the globe is slightly lower than normal average. These effects are most clearly defined in the Tropics and extend towards the Poles along the principal warm occean currents. Meteorological changes are also related to geomagnetic storms which in turn depend on events taking place in the Sun. It is worth noting that in 1957, a year of exceptional solar conditions, the United States had an extremely large number of cyclones.

In any case there is enough evidence to establish that there is a correlation between solar and terrestrial meteorological phenomena. On the earth, there are variations caused by normal warming and cooling of various sections of the atmosphere due simply to the movements of airmasses. Disturbances on the Sun affect different parts of the earth in different ways by producing changes of temperature or pressure, on humidity, rainfall and even storms.

The solar wind is a stream of electrically charged particies which blows along the lines of force of the Sun's magnetic field. This is funnelled into the polar regions by the earth's magnetic field. Once they get into the earth's upper atmosphere small particles such as these act as 'seeds' on which crystals of ice and snow can grow. If these ice crystals melt rainfall can be produced. There may be other ways in which solar activity and the solar wind act to affect the weather. Studies of variations in the solar wind as measured from pioneer spacecraft provide another clue. The solar wind is more 'gusty' around the time of maximum solar activity. This is statistical proof that when the Sun is more active, producing flares and spots, the solar wind contains more high speed streams. And these high speed streams are very likely to affect the weather on the earth.

Another piece of direct evidence linking sunspots and the weather comes from records of the occurrences of storms and lightning in the United Kingdom. Dr. M. F. Stringfellow of the U.K. Electricity Council, Research Center has published graphs which indicate that the annual lightning incidence (which is a measure of the number of lightning flashes occurring in a given area each year) closely follows the mean sunspot index.

The cause of the sunspot cycle is still a mystery but it seems to roughly synchronise with the period of Jupiter's orbit around the Sun. Just as the Sun and the Moon raise tides in the oceans and the atmosphere of the earth and even in the solid earth itself, so does the gravity of the planets raise tides on the surface of the Sun. And the height of the total tide depends on the relative alignments of the planets.

The earth's magnetic fleld seems to be linked with the weather. Studies conducted by the U.S. Weather Bureau show a steady increase in magnetic intensity in England, Sweden and Egypt as well as a steady decrease in temperature. At the same time in Mexico, Canada and the U.S.A. the magnetic intensity is decreasing and the climate is getting warmer. Sudden changes in magnetic intensity are followed by abrupt changes in weather. And again solar activity has a lot to do with the earth's magnetic intensity.

A study of some of the most devastating cyclones on the Andhra Pradesh coast shows a very significant periodicity between sunspot maxima and the occurrence of a major cyclone.

The figures in table I indicate how closely major cyclones in Andhra Pradesh follow snnspot maxima.

Table I

Looking at planetary positions on cyclonic days we come across another interesting correspondence. Any unprejudiced person would find that this correspondence when used in conjunction with sunspot maxima and conventional weather forecasting techniques can be of tremendous value in predicting future cyclones.

For example on the day of the 1927 cyclone there were loose conjunctions between Jupiter and Uranus and between Saturn and Ketu. In 1936 we find a Jupiter-Rahu conjunction. In 1949 there was a Saturn-Ketu conjunction in Virgo, the ruling sign of India. 1969 saw a Saturn-Jupiter opposition and a Rahu-Uranus conjunction, the latter combination aspecting the 12th from Virgo. The 1977 cyclone synchronised with a Jupiter-Rahu square and Saturn in the 12th (loss, death, etc.) from India's ruling sign.

It seems that cyclones on the Andhra Pradesh Coast are likely to occur close to periods of sunspot maxima when the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu (Ketu) and Uranus form even loose aspects of kendra (square) and samagama (conjunction) between themselves. These indications are strengthened whenever either Virgo or the 12th from it are afflicted.

When a suspected periodicity crops up in observations but cannot be proved, the obvious thing is to find a physical reason why such a period should exist. All things point to the influence of the Sun on the earth and the influence of relative planetary alignments on the Sun. The Government as well as the Meteorological Departments owe a sacred duty to the public to investigate all possible methods of forecasting cyclones and other natural weather phenomena. Till now scientific progress in this field has been blocked by highly prejudiced attitude towards Astrology — probably the only science which can give long-range weather forecasts with some degree of accuracy. Continued prejudice can only mean suffering and death to millions of our countrymen. The influence of planets on the weather is being seriously investigated by (among others) such prestigious agencies like the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and. Appleton Laboratories in England. Many scientists at N.C.A.R. feel that even numerical modelling (computer simulation) of weather can only help in developing a broad understanding of the processes involved in changing both weather and climate but simply cannot cope with the complexities required for accurate forecasting.

It will be seen that what follow in the following passages are important scientific truths in the eyes of Hindu savants. That the weather indications of one single day should form the subject of so much calculation with the Hindus in determining the future agricultural prospect of the land while to the inexperienced eye of a "man of science" the day appears as indifferent or otherwise as any other day of the year makes it clear that modern science in general and meteorology in particular are still far behind in their investigations of the laws of nature.

Varahamihira begins with a theory of clouds and cloud formation, which to the student of modern meteorology, may seem puzzling. To determine the amount of rain that one may expect during the rainy season, one has merely to study the conditions of the atmosphere six months earlier; in other words, the atmospheric conditions at any one time determine the amount of rainfall six months hence. Long-range forecast was therefore a speciality with our ancient meteorologists. In their poetic language, the clouds become "pregnant" at certain seasons of the year and give "birth" to rain six months later. The symptoms of the "conception" of the clouds should be observed during the days of the bright fortnight of the month of Margasira (November-December) beginning with that day when the Moon enters the asterism of Poorvashadha. We are thus enabled to determine the very day of the occurrence of rain from a knowledge of the day on which rain has been "conceived".

Not only that, but the very hour of the occurrence of rainfall could be determined; for says Varahamihira, clouds "conceiving" during the day will be delivered at night, and clouds conceiving at night will be "delivered" during the day; clouds "conceiving" in the twilight of the morning will be delivered in the twilight of the evening, and vice versa. Again, if at the time of conception, clouds have appeared in the east, then at the time of birth, they will appear in the west; and so on with the other quarters. Similarly, if at the time of conception the wind has blown from the east, then at the time of rain, it will blow from the opposite quarter.

What are the signs of a healthy "conception", which would in due course yield abundance of rain? To know them the observer is asked to study all atmospheric phenomena, such as rainbows, clouds, lightning and thunder, from the beginning of the month of Margasira, for about four months. The general atmospheric conditions for a healthy conception of the clouds are stated to be the following: —

(1) Gentle and agreeable winds from the north, north-east and east. (2) Clear sky. (3) Soft, white, deep halo round the Moon or the Sun. (4) Dark coloured sky, 'dark as the crow's egg'. (5) Sky overcast with huge, bright, dense clouds. (6) Needle-shaped clouds or sword-shaped clouds. (7) Blood-red clouds. (8) Rainbow in the morning or in the evening. (9) Low, rambling roar of thunder. (10) Lightning. (11) The appearance of the mock-sun and (12) Planets shining in full form and with soft light.

Apart from these general signs, certain phenomena observed in certain seasons of the year indicate a healthy "pregnancy" of the rainclouds. In the month of Margasira (November-December) and Pausha (December-January) red sky in the morning and in the evening, clouds surrounded by halos, and less than usual cold with excessive fall of snow are indications of a healthy conception. In the month of Magha (January-February) the signs of a healthy conception of clouds are high winds, frost and mist obscuring the Sun and the Moon, excessive cold, and sunrise and sunset under clouds. In the months of Phalguna (February-March) strong, violent winds; fine clouds marching from place to place; broken and imperfect halos round the Sun and the Moon; and tawny colour of the Sun, all these are indicative of an abundant rainfall 195 days after. Sky marked by winds, clouds and halos in the months of Chaitra (March-April) and Vaisakha (April-May) indicate a healthy conception of clouds.

If during the months of conception (November-May) the "pregnant" clouds appear of the colour of pearls or silver or tamala leaf, or blue lotus, or of collyrium, then the rain during the season will be profuse. If the pregnant clouds should be exposed to the hot rays of the Sun, or accompanied by gentle winds, then the rain that follows after 195 days will be excessive.

Certain phenomena, however, tend to nullify any chance of future rainfall. Shapes of cities and towers in clouds; thunderbolts; dust-storms; meteoric falls; appearance of comets in the sky and of spots in the solar disc; occurrence of eclipses — all these are indications that the "pregnancy" of the clouds will "miscarry". Also, if there should be a fall of heavy rain at the time of conception, or if the symptoms of a healthy pregnancy assigned to the several seasons of the year should fail, then the clouds will yield little or no rain during the rainy season.

Three days in the month of Ashadha (June-July) have been specially selected by our ancient meteorologists for observation of atmospheric conditions with a view to determine the future prospect of rain. They are the days when in the lunar month of Ashadha the Moon passes through the asterisms of Rohini, Swati and Uttarashadha. They have been respectively called the Rohini Yoga, Swati Yoga and Ashadhi Yoga days. It devolved on every Hindu Astronomer to study the atmospheric conditions on these three days. If he should notice the sky covered with huge clouds, serpent-like in shape, white in certain parts and black in certain other parts, or he should see the sky covered with red clouds or clouds of the colour of blue lotus, and marked by lightning immediately before sunrise and after sunset he can be sure of heavy rains during the rainy season. On the Swati Yoga day, if there should be a fall of rain throughout day and night, there will be uninterrupted rain for several days in winter. Wind from the east or north-east on the Ashadhi Yoga day indicates good rain, good crops; wind blowing from the south-east, southwest indicates very little rainfall in the future. Continuous hot wind from the south-east or high wind from the southwest at sunset, on the Ashadhi Yoga day, spells terrible famine.

When our ancient meteorologists could predict rain long in advance, it was no difficult thing for them to forecast rain in the immediate future. During this rainy season, if the Sun at the time of rising is exceptionally bright and red, or if the taste of water is insipid, or the colour of the sky is that of the cow's eye; if at the time of sunrise or sunset there should be seen the rainbow in the sky; if salt begins to sweat; if fish in tanks jump from water on the bank; if cats frequently scratch the ground; if metal vessels emit a fishy smell; if ants with their eggs move from one place to another, there will be immediate rainfall.

One is able to understand these signs, for at the time when rain is expected and a low cloud is approaching, the odour of metal vessels and of drains becomes noticeable as the lower pressure causes some of the air to escape, and one observes a change in the behavior of animals and insects which react to a change in the atmospheric conditions. The red colour of the Sun, the halo around the Sun and the Moon and presence of clouds, all indicate the hazy condition of the atmoshere.

We had also rain-gauging in the past. Falling rain, says Varahamihira, should be collected in a vessel whose capacity is an adhaka. An adhaka has been defined as the quntity of rainfall which fills to the brim a vessel 20 inches in diameter and 8 inches deep. Four such adhakas constitute a drona. Equipped with such a rain-gauge our ancient meteorologists were able to measure the exact" amount of rain that fell during the rainy season; and by correlating the amount of rain that fell with the factors that made possible the fall of rain, they were able to predict the exact amount of rainfall that could be expected in the rainy season. If the "conception" of clouds is due to all the five conditions of wind, rain, lightning, thunder and clouds, says Varahamihira, then the quantity of subsequent rainfall will be one drona, and this will fall over an area of 400 square miles. If the "conception" has been due to wind alone, the resultant rainfall will be three adhakas; if due to thunder, twelve adhakas, other factors affecting rainfall.

These quantities of rainfall are, however, modified by the amount of rain that falls on the days when the Moon passes from the asterism of Poorvashadha to that of Moola in the lunar month of Jyeshta (June-July). During this month if it rains on the day on which the Moon is in the asterism or either Hasta or Poorvashadha or Mrigasira or Chitta or Revati or Dhanishta — then on the corresponding days of the next lunar month, there will be 16 dronas of rainfall; if it rains on days when the Moon is in either Sravana or Makha or Anuradha or Bharani or Moola then on the corresponding days of the next month there would be 14 dronas of rainfall; if when the Moon resides in either Satabhisha or Jyeshta or Swati, there would be 4 dronas of rainfall on the corresponding days of the rainy season: if in Krittika 10 dronas; if in Poorvaphalguni 25 dronas; if in Visakha, Uttarashada, 20 dronas; if in Aslesha 13 dronas; if in Uttarabhadrapada or Uttaraphalguni or Rohini, 25 dronas; if in Aswini, 13 dronas; if in Aridra, 18 dronas. In all the above cases, the subsequent rainfall depends upon the asterisms being unaffected by comets, meteors and the like from the month of Jyeshta to the rainy season. If the asterisms should suffer by the meeting together in them of the Sun, Saturn and Ketu (Moon's descending node) or by the course of Mars through them or by planetary conjunctions, there will be neither rain nor prosperity in the land; but if benefic planets should pass through the asterisms or if the asterisms should remain unaffected in any of the ways described above, mankind would be happy.

The above notes are based on a study of Varahamihira's Brihat Samhita. It will be seen how closely our forefathers studied the atmospheric conditions to determine beforehand, almost exactly, the extent, quantity and quality of rainfall that might be expected during the rainy season. Their theory of the "conception" of clouds looks fantastic to us who have been reared on Western science, but having due respect for the wisdom of the ancient Hindu sages, it would be well to test the truth of their statements.

The only hope of accurate weather forecasts would be a synthesis of different approaches. It is time our meteorologists understand the limitations of conventional forecastings techniques, remove the blinkers of prejudice and pseudo scientific arrogance off their eyes, and tap the enormous potentialities that astrology has to offer. Otherwise future generations will hold them guilty of prejudices of the worst kind — prejudices which could make the difference between life and death for thousands of people.

The rules enumerated in ancient books, as could be seen from the above 10 stanzas are simple and dispense with costly apparatus. On the basis of the methods given in ancient works, we are enabled to make not only long range forecasts of rainfall but also of the occurence of rains in half-lunar months (Paksha) and even of the day.

Our author appears to have relied mostly on Varahamihira and Madhaveeyam while dealing with the principles of forecasting rainfall.

The solar ingress into Gemini (sankramand) is given much prominence. Certain juxta-positions of planets on that day are said to indicate whether or not during the year ahead, there would be copious rainfall. Emphasis is laid on watery signs both in the Rasi and in the vargas. For instance, if a planet occupies Cancer or Scorpio or Pisces in Rasi, Navamsa, Drekkana etc., it is said to be in watery vargas or divisions.

Natural pheonomena such as the rainbow and the mock Sun are all given importance to study the trend of rainfall. In the rainy season (Sravana and Bhadrapada) appearance of a rainbow in the east forebodes no rain. In other seasons such a phenomena indicates rainfall. Stanzas 9, 10 and 11 enable us to predict rainfall Paksha-wise i.e., every 15 days, based on the full Moon and new Moon phenomena.

Stanza 12. When winds blow from the northeast in the evening twilight of the full Moon day of the lunar month of Ashadha, there will be downpour and consequent luxuriant vegetable life during the ensuing year. When it rains on the 4th day of the dark half of the lunar months Ashadha and Poorvabhadra constellation of the same month, there will be luxuriant vegetation during the year following.

Stanza 13. If the 5th day of the bright half of the lunar month of Ashadha falls on a Sunday, there will be little rain; on a Monday, there will a downpour; Tuesday, rains will be fierce; Wednesday, would bring in a storm; Thursday, general prosperity; Friday, ruin and loss; and Saturday, misery everywhere.

Stanza 14. When the Sun is in Aquarius and the constellation of Rohini coincides with the 6th lunar day, it will rain only a little; the 7th gives a little more; the 8th, moderate rains; the 9th, copious rains; and the 10th, a deluge.

NOTES

The coincidence of certain lunar days and asterisms when the Sun occupies certain signs, appear to have much significance in deciding the nature and extent of rainfall. When the Sun is in Aquarius and the 10th lunar day (Dasami) and Rohini coincide, there will be very heavy rainfall. These principles can be tested even by laymen and no special technical qualifications are called for.

Stanza 15. When the Sun is in Poorvashadha, if on the 1st day, all the sky including the Sun is found to be completely covered by dark clouds, there will be some rain (during the month of Gemini) when the Sun transits Aridra. Similarly, if on the 2nd day, all the heavens are studded with dark clouds, there will be rain here and there during the latter part of Gemini and the first part of Cancer when the Sun transits the asterism of Punarvasu. Similarly on the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and so on till the 14th day, if the same conditions prevail, there will be rains during the succeeding months when the Sun will be in Pushyami, Aslesha, Makha, Pubba, till Moola in regular succession.

NOTES

If however the heavens are only partially covered, there will be rain during certain days only within the period of 13 1/3 days. If the heavens are clear, than there will be no rains.